The Summer Slowdown That Isn’t
We don’t make money the old-fashioned way—we tariff it, subsidize it, and then blame someone else.
It’s the Tuesday after Memorial Day, and across America, beach chairs are being dusted off, grills fired up, and in boxes filled with one-line replies that say, “Back next week—probably.”
In theory, summer is when things slow down. Kids ditch the classroom. Congress adjourns for “district work periods,” which somehow always involve a golf course. And Wall Street typically treats Memorial Day as the unofficial kickoff to its own version of recess—a time when volumes dip, interns outnumber portfolio managers, and the economic calendar thins out like a post-barbecue potato salad.
Historically, you could count on this seasonal siesta. There was even that trusty old rhyme—“Sell in May and go away.” It had the cozy ring of grandma’s advice and the quiet suggestion that stocks needed sunscreen and sangria too.
But if you’ve been watching markets lately, you know something’s changed. The slow season isn’t so slow anymore. In fact, it’s starting to feel like a myth—like fat-free ice cream or bipartisan cooperation.
Why the Markets Don’t Nap Anymore
Let’s start with a simple truth: algorithms don’t summer in the Hamptons.
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, summer really did mean a slowdown. Portfolio managers took real vacations, traders couldn’t make big moves without a team in place, and the news cycle took a well-deserved nap. Even CNBC used to run reruns of Squawk Box and fill airtime with rerun interviews of Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, or whichever billionaire wasn't currently in space.
But in today’s market? There’s no off switch. Algorithms churn 24/7. News breaks across a global cycle that includes Asian earnings calls at 2 a.m. and European central bank whispers before you’ve had your first sip of Starbucks. Retail traders don’t take vacations—they take TikTok breaks. And the Fed? Well, they’re always one CPI report away from rewriting your summer plans.
So yes, you might be grilling ribs—but somewhere, someone’s modeling second-quarter inflation in Taiwan.
What’s Lurking Beneath This Year’s Surface?
Here’s a list of reasons why we might want to keep the lawn chair in one hand and the Bloomberg app in the other this summer:
🧯 Sticky Inflation
Headline inflation is moderating, but the “sticky” components—like services, insurance, rent, and healthcare—are about as stubborn as a toddler at bedtime. The Fed’s preferred measure (core PCE) is still well above target. And while investors keep dreaming of cuts, Powell and his crew keep channeling their inner “not yet.”
💼 Labor Market Tension
Job creation has slowed just enough to feel squishy, but not enough to trigger panic. That’s a recipe for policy limbo. Watch for wage growth, labor participation shifts, and—crucially—how the services sector continues to demand more workers than are available.
📉 Corporate Earnings
The Q2 season is always a wildcard. Consumer spending is softening at the edges. Inventory build-ups are back. And a few key sectors are balancing between “still booming” and “post-pandemic hangover.” Watch for guidance cuts in July.
🗳️ Global Elections and Trade Policy
From India to South Africa to Mexico, nearly half the world’s population is voting in 2024–2025. Leadership changes often come with shifts in trade policy. And this year, the tariff talk is louder than the cicadas.
Which brings us to one of my favorite phrases to describe the current global trade landscape...
“We Don’t Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way…”
You may be old enough to remember the old Smith Barney commercial: “We make money the old-fashioned way—we earn it.” John Houseman would stare into the camera, slow as molasses, and deliver that line with the gravitas of a Supreme Court justice.
Well, that may have worked in the ‘80s. But in today’s geopolitical world? Let’s be honest:
“We don’t make money the old-fashioned way—we tariff it, subsidize it, and then blame someone else.”
One week, it’s a 25% tariff on Chinese EVs. The next, it’s a subsidy for U.S. solar panel production. Then it’s a retaliatory measure on agricultural exports, followed by a summit in Geneva where everyone agrees not to yell at each other too much.
It’s like watching a married couple argue about who left the garage door open, only the garage is the global supply chain, and the neighbors are holding your bonds.
For advisors and investors alike, this “on again, off again” tariff tango matters. Not just for headlines, but because these policy shifts affect:
Input costs for manufacturers
Consumer prices for everything from shoes to smartphones
Stock valuations in key sectors like semiconductors, autos, and agriculture
Currency volatility, which trickles into emerging markets and international fund returns
You can’t just screen for “revenue growth” anymore—you have to ask, “Where is it coming from? And what’s the tariff situation this week?”
What Should Advisors Be Doing?
If you’re advising clients right now—or just trying to make sense of the noise—here are three takeaways for the not-so-slow summer ahead:
1. Stay Alert, Not Anxious
Yes, summer is supposed to be quiet. But quiet doesn’t mean risk-free. The combination of thin trading volumes and heavy macro uncertainty means small sparks can cause bigger fires.
2. Plan, Don’t Predict
Don’t bet the farm on rate cuts or global harmony. Instead, focus on what you can control: asset allocation, risk tolerance, rebalancing strategy, and tax efficiency. Those tools work in every season.
3. Talk Legacy While It’s Quiet
Summer is a fantastic time to revisit long-term plans—especially for clients thinking about estate strategies, generational giving, or charitable funds. Legacy conversations don’t need a crisis to be relevant. They need time, thoughtfulness, and—occasionally—a well-timed iced tea.
In every meeting, every call, every quiet moment between market cycles, advisors should be focused not just on what your money can earn, but what your wealth can mean. Across generations. Across seasons.
So fire up the grill. Enjoy the extra daylight. But maybe keep an eye on that bond yield curve while the burgers sizzle.
And if your neighbor asks what’s going on with tariffs, just smile and say:
“We don’t earn money the old-fashioned way anymore. We negotiate it—one trade spat at a time.”