Weekend edition — June 13, 2025 (paid subscribers only)
I have been working on this paid subscriber only Macro Watchlist since early this morning. I hope one of the benefits of being a paid subscriber are these types of posts that I will try to put together when major events occur. It is early in this crisis, but I have tried to put together what I have been able to read and analyze so far. I have tried to include sources for further reading if you want more details.
1. What Happened Overnight
On June 13, 2025, in a pre-dawn operation dubbed Operation Rising Lion, Israeli forces—including the IDF and Mossad—launched a large-scale coordinated air and covert strike targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure.
The operation included:
Over 200 aircraft deploying more than 330 munitions across approximately 100 strategic sites, including the Natanz enrichment facility, missile factories, military housing, and the open residential compounds of senior commanders.
High-value casualties, reportedly killing top Iranian military figures—IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, Gholam Ali Rashid—and several nuclear scientists.
A covert sabotage component, believed to be executed by Mossad operatives who disabled surface-to-air missile defenses and missile launchers, facilitating safer airstrike corridors.
Israel justified the attack as a preventive strike to halt Iran’s alleged near–weaponization of its nuclear enrichment program—reportedly close to producing several nuclear weapons within months. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the operation would continue “as long as necessary”.
2. U.S. Reaction & Impact on Ongoing Nuclear Talks
At the time of the strike, U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations were at a critical juncture—scheduled for a sixth round of talks in Oman over the coming weekend.
Washington publicly distanced itself. Secretary of State Rubio emphasized the U.S. was not involved, its priority was protecting American forces, and it preferred a diplomatic solution.
In private, however, there are rumblings of covert alignment: Israeli officials reportedly informed the U.S. in advance, and some describe possible behind‑the‑scenes U.S. facilitation or tacit support.
President Trump—whose administration had publicly distanced itself—later issued statements blaming Iran’s refusal to heed ultimatums and warning Tehran against escalation. However, the strike derailed the Oman talks indefinitely—Iran announced it would not participate in the June 15 session.
Bottom line: Israel's strike has effectively ended any realistic near-term diplomatic pathway between the U.S. and Iran. Even moderate Tehran factions that were engaged in dialogue now see hardliners gaining the upper hand.